McKINLEY: There certainly will be some return right away and there will be a gradual return over time as conditions permit. I think it’s also fair to say that a proportion [of them] probably will not go back in the immediate future, or maybe ever.
What about those who have already made the journey to Europe?
There is some psychological complexity to it. Very large numbers of Kosovars had been living all along, for the last couple of decades, outside their country, earning money, sending it back in the form of remittances, supporting their families in that fashion. And because of the war and destruction, this will probably become more important. Still, I don’t doubt that when asked if they wish to return, most refugees answer quite honestly yes, they do.
So it’s possible that we’ll see a fairly large portion of that displaced population remain in Europe?
I think so. And part of the answer to that is out of the hands of the Kosovars themselves, because the governments hosting them may make policy decisions that make it difficult for them to stay. In the case of the Bosnian refugee caseload, the German government basically made a decision that once the war was over, the Bosnians should go back. Something like that may happen in the case of the Kosovars.
It’s been said that what we’re seeing now is a “nonstop process of family reunification.” Is that accurate?
Yes, I think there is something to that because many Kosovar families, maybe the majority, have overseas connections, particularly in Germany, Switzerland and Turkey. Now, other groups are being established in other countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, where, generally, once you’re accepted, you’re on a track to citizenship and a new life.
Are you at all concerned about the KLA’s [Kosovo Liberation Army] encouraging a movement of people back into Kosovo before the area has been stabilized?
This is something that needs to be looked at. All of us involved in the international assistance effort planning for a return [of refugees] hope to do it in a coordinated, orderly fashion. But it may not be the way it actually happens. There probably will be an attempt by the KLA to move back in as quickly and as forcefully as it can. Another thing I think you need to keep your eye on–I hope it doesn’t happen, but I suspect it might–is the departure of the remaining Serb population from Kosovo. It’s 10 percent of the prewar population; that’s somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 people.
As the refugees continue to mount along the border, do you anticipate tension with the KLA, and if so, is there anything you can do to monitor or control their movement?
If it became necessary, then the answer is yes, it could be prevented. You just basically close the roads that lead back home, and tell people that they have to stay because things aren’t ready. It is physically possible but in political and humanitarian terms not desirable to do that.
What could happen if the refugees return to their villages only to find Serbs, former neighbors who had possibly turned on them, still there?
This war has been very brutal. I’m not here to say that the Serb population of Kosovo participated necessarily in the brutality. Some probably did, many others probably didn’t. On the other hand, if there’s a return by the KLA, and by people who were forced out of their houses, I think you can only expect that there would be a settling of scores. That’s why I think it’s not unlikely that before that happens, the Serbs will withdraw.
Do you have any indications that that’s already happening?
No, I don’t. I think they’re just watching and waiting, and who knows how much the Serbs really know about what’s going on? One of the reasons that Milosevic and company have had fairly good success in keeping the support of the Serbs is that they’re fairly good at manipulating the media and the news. I haven’t seen much about the exodus, but I’m afraid that there will be one.
